Macroeconomic Situation in 2017

The Company’s operating performance in 2017 was significantly impacted by the following key macroeconomic factors:

Global and national economic growth rates

Global oil prices

RUB exchange rate and inflation rates in Russia

Global and National Economic Growth Rates

According to January 2018 estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth in 2017 (PPPPurchasing power parity. GDP in constant 2010 prices) accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year Year-on-year. (3.2% year-on-year in 2016). GDP growth rates in developed economies increased from 1.7% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2017 while growing in emerging markets from 4.4% in 2016 to 4.7% in 2017.

Among developed economies, the most notable economic growth occurred in the USA, Canada, Japan, and the Eurozone. In 2017, GDP growth rate in the USA was 2.3% (1.5% in 2016), 3.0% in Canada (1.4% in 2016), and 1.6% in Japan (0.9% in 2016).

In 2017, GDP growth rate in the Eurozone was 2.4% (up 1.8% in 2016). Germany and France remain leaders in economic growth within the Eurozone, their GDP growth rates reaching 2.2% and 1.8% in 2017 from 1.9% and 1.2% in 2016, respectively.

GDP growth rates slowed down in both the UK (from 1.9% in 2016 to 1.8%According to the British Office for National Statistics. in 2017) and Mexico (from 2.9% in 2016 to 2.2% in 2017).

GDP Growth Rates (PPP GDP in constant 2010 prices) in Developed Economies Sources: International Monetary Fund, national statistical services, Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

The IMF forecasts the global GDP growth rate to accelerate to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 (World Economic Outlook as at 22 January 2018).

In 2017, GDP growth rate in China increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.8% (6.7% in 2016), while a significant slowdown in GDP growth rates was observed in India (from 7.1% in 2016 to 6.7% in 2017), as well as in the Middle East and in North Africa (from 4.9% in 2016 to 2.5% in 2017).

According to IMF estimates, the growth in international trade in goods and services accelerated from 2.5% in 2016 to 4.7% in 2017. Global trade in goods and services grew mainly due to increasing prices in metals (up 24.2% year-on-year) and energy (up 23.6% year-on-year), and the declining real effective exchange rate of USD to the currencies of main trade partners (down 0.5% year-on-year).

After two years of crisis, the Russian economy returned to growth in Q4 2016. In 2017, the GDP growth in Russia was largely supported by the improved macroeconomic environment of growing energy prices and increased price competitiveness of domestic producers due to RUB depreciation during 2014–2015.

According to an initial assessment from Rosstat, in 2017, the Russian GDP accelerated by 1.5% (down 0.2% in 2016). With a combined 58.3%, the following three sectors were the largest contributors to the GDP growth: retail and wholesale trade, vehicle and motorcycle repairs (contributed approximately 28%; 3.1% growth year-on-year), transportation and storage (contributed approximately 16%; 3.7% growth year-on-year), and real estate transactions (contributed approximately 14%; 2.2% growth year-on-year). In fourth place was the mining sector with a contribution of 8.4% to the GDP growth (1.4% growth year-on-year). In 2017, the most significant change in the GDP structure was the growing share of the mining sector, which grew by 0.8 percentage points to 10.3%.

Economy growth rates in developed economies are projected at 2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, while the GDP growth rates in emerging markets are expected to be higher, 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.

Global trade growth is expected to slow down to 4.6% year-on-year in 2018 and to 4.4% year-on-year in 2019.

The IMF forecasts the Russian economy to grow at 1.7% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. The Bank of Russia forecasts the Russian GDP growth rate at 1.5%–2.0% in 2018, with a slight deceleration to 1%–1.5% in 2019. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation forecasts (as at 27 October 2017, baseline scenario) the Russian GDP growth rate at 2.1% in 2018, while in 2019 and 2020, there will be a slight acceleration of the Russian GDP growth to 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively.

GDP Growth Rates (PPP GDP in constant 2010 prices) in Emerging Markets Sources: International Monetary Fund, national statistical services, Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)